2023 BOTY Predictions Part 1

Is it a bit early for *next* year’s Book of the Year?

Probably.

However, we’re already 4 months into the time period selection, so I figured I’d give a 3-month update on my predictions! This way if anyone is like me, and wants to try and read as many of the nominations as possible, it’ll be more likely. Currently, only September, October, and November reads are included; there simply isn’t enough data for December yet.

Another note – these predictions don’t really have anything to do with my personal preferences, but more so the data on these picks. In order for a book to do well, it needs to have a high number of reviews and a large “loved” percentage – therefore, those are the two points of data I focus on.

“Likely” Finalists

Books that I consider “likey” finalists need two things: a loved percentage above 60%, and more than 8000 reviews. Last year, only around 12 books met this criteria, including all 5 finalists. All those 12 books were included in the Top 20, too!

Books Above 60% Loved

If books have a rating above 60% loved, there is a phenomenal chance of making the Top 20, if it reaches a solid number of reviews. I’ve estimated that right around 5000 reviews is the threshold for a book to make it into the top 20, but with months to go before voting, even books that don’t meet this threshold still have a solid chance to get those reviews and do well.

Top 20 “Qualified”

My theory on how the Top 20 gets chosen is two fold. First, to become Top 20 “Qualified” a book must meet two criteria: have at least 5,000 reviews and have a loved percentage at 50% or above. Then, the top 4 books in the 5 genre categories (Mystery/Thriller, Fantasy, Historical Fiction, Literary/Contemporary, and Romance) are chosen to form the top 20. This is my own personal prediction on how it gets chosen, and would have picked 19 of the Top 20 from 2022 correct. It’s not perfect, but it’s a pretty decent guess.

The five books that follow are the books that meet the first criteria and were a pick from September, October, or November 2022. From here, it would depend on the other books in their corresponding genre category; the larger the loved percentage, the larger the chance it makes the Top 20 for 2023.

Since there are still months to go before the Top 20 is released, many more books will be added to this list as time goes on. I’m hoping to be able to provide updates every few months; subscribe to the blog to make sure you’re updated when I publish!